استفاده از مدل MIROC-ESM در بررسی شرایط هیدرو- اقلیمی حوضه آبخیز کوچک مقیاس تحت اثر تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، قطب علمی هیدروانفورماتیک، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

چرخه هیدرولوژی در حوضه رودخانه­ها و منابع آب قابل دسترس در مناطق نیمه خشک جهان به شدت تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم و افزایش بیش از حد انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای قرار دارند. هدف این تحقیق بررسی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر شرایط اقلیمی حوضه آبخیز زشک- ابرده در استان خراسان رضوی می­باشد. مدل SWAT توسط الگوریتم SUFI-2 با هدف بهبود نتایج شبیه­سازی دبی حوضه مورد واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی قرار گرفت. مدل MIROC-ESM از سری مدل­های گزارش پنجم هیأت بین­الدول تغییر اقلیم (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP5) جهت بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر مؤلفه­های هیدرو- اقلیمی حوضه و تحت چهار سناریوی انتشار (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs) به نام­های6/2، 5/4، 0/6 و 5/8 و در سه بازه زمانی آینده نزدیک (2042-2014)، میانی (2071-2043) و دور (2100-2072) مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. همچنین، روند تغییرات حوضه با استفاده از آزمون من- کندال مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات درجه تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP6.0 در دوره زمانی آینده نزدیک و میانی و آینده دور (RCP6.0) از یک روند معنی­دار افزایشی تبعیت می­کند. از طرف دیگر، مؤلفه بارش در تمامی سناریوها از تغییرات کاهشی غیرمعنی­داری پیروی می­کند. همچنین، تغییرات رواناب تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 و در دوره­های زمانی آینده میانی و دور و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 و در آینده دور از روند معنی­دار کاهشی تبعیت می­‏کند. به طور کلی، میزان درجه حرارت در یک مسیر افزایشی پیش می­رود، در حالی که مقادیر بارش و رواناب یک جابجایی کاهشی را تا انتهای قرن 21 در حوضه دنبال می­کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Using the MIROC-ESM Model to Investigate the Hydro-Climatic Conditions of the Small-Scale Watershed under the Impact of Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yousef Hassanzadeh 1
  • Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar 2
1 Depart of water Engineering, Center of Excellence in Hydroinformatics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]

Climatic paleontology evidences that climate change has always been present throughout the history of the planet, but the climatic changes of the last century have two distinct features, as compared with past climatic changes. First, human activities play a greater role in the nature of the current climate change. Second, the speed of recent climatic changes is greater, so that, a lot of changes will be occurring in the Earth's atmosphere during a short term (Telmer et al. 2004). Nowadays, global warming has significant effects on precipitation and runoff yield and water resources due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (Pervez and Henebry 2015). The average of climatic variables, especially the components of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the annual or seasonal scale, play a predominant role in the hydrological cycle and usually used as an indicator for assessing the climate change on the available water resources of Iran now and especially in the future (Afshar et al. 2017). A number of studies have been done to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrological components of watersheds in Iran on the basis of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report models (AR4). These models together with older emission scenarios have less resolution, in comparison with the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) models. Thus, climate change studies with higher resolution climate models under the new emission scenarios (RCPs) of the AR5 seem necessary in the watersheds of Iran. Zoshk-Abardeh is one of the important sources of income for the regional villagers and has a high ecotourism potential in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran. It is considered as an urban watershed and according to the historical evidence has a high flood potential, as well. Therefore, the identification of climate change effects on the hydrologic regime of this watershed is necessary for water resource planners.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
  • Climate change
  • Fifth assessment report
  • Emission scenario
  • Mann-kendall test

مراجع

قربانی م ع، حسینی س ح، حسن­پور کاشانی م، عباسی ح، "ارزیابی عملکرد بهره­برداری از مخزن سد علویان در شرایط تغییر اقلیم آتی"، نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز، 1394، 45 (79)، 72-59.
Abbaspour KC, “User manual for SWAT-CUP, SWAT calibration and uncertainty analysis programs”, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, Duebendorf, Switzerland, 2007.
Abbaspour KC, “SWAT-CUP2 SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Programs. Version2”, 2009.
Abbaspour KC, Rouholahnejad E, Vaghefi S, Srinivasan R, Yang H, Kløve B, “A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model”, Journal of Hydrology, 2015, 524, 733-752.
Afshar AA, Hasanzadeh Y, Besalatpour AA, Pourreza-Bilondi M, “Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways”, Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology”, 2017, 129 (1-2), 683-699.
Afshar AA, Hassanzadeh Y, “Determination of Monthly Hydrological Erosion Severity and Runoff in Torogh Dam Watershed Basin Using SWAT and WEPP Models”, Iranian Journal of Science and Technology Transaction of Civil Engineering, 2017, 41 (2), 221-228.
Ahmed KF, Wang G, Silander J, Wilson AM, Allen JM, Horton R, Anyah R, “Statistical downscaling and bias correction of climate model outputs for climate change impact assessment in the US northeast”, Journal of Global and Planetary Change”, 2013, 100, 320-332.
Akurut M, Willems P, Niwagaba CB, “Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Precipitation over Lake ictoria, East Africa, in the 21st Century“, Journal of Water, 2014, 6 (9), 2634-2659.
Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Srinivasan R, Williams JR, Haney EB, Neitsch SL, “Soil and Water Assessment Tool input/output file documentation: Version 2009”, College Station: Texas Water resources institute technical report, US, 2011, pp.365.
Brekke L, Thrasher BL, Maurer EP, Pruitt T, “Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections: release of downscaled CMIP5 climate projections, comparison with preceding information, and summary of user needs”, US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Technical Service Center, Denver, Colorado, US, 2013.
Chong-Hai XU, Ying X, “The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble”, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 2012, 5 (6), 527-533.
Cuo L, Zhang Y, Zhu F, Liang L, “Characteristics and changes of streamflow on the Tibetan Plateau: A review”, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2014, 2, 49-68.
Das J, Umamahesh NV, “Multisite Downscaling of Monsoon Precipitation over the Godavari River Basin under the RCP 4.5 Scenario”, World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, Austin, USA, 17-21May, 2015.
Gebre SL, Ludwig F, “Hydrological response to climate change of the upper Blue Nile River Basin: based on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)”, Journal of Climatology & Weather Forecasting, 2015, 3 (1), 1-15.
IPCC, “Climate change: The physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, pp 996.
IPCC, “Climate change: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF et. al. (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change”, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
Jajarmizadeh M, Harun S, Ghahraman B, Mokhtari MH, “Modeling daily stream flow using plant evapotranspiration method”, International Journal of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, 2012, 4 (6), 218-226.
Javan K, Nasiri saleh F, Taheri Shahraiyni H, “The influences of climate change on the runoff Gharesoo River watershed”, American Journal of Climate Change (AJCC), 2013, 2 (4), 296-305.
Kendall MG, “Rank correlation methods”, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London, 1975, 272p.
Kumar N, Singh SK, Srivastava PK, Narsimlu B, “SWAT Model calibration and uncertainty analysis for streamflow prediction of the Tons River Basin, India, using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm. Model”, Journal of Earth Systems and Environment, 2017, 3 (1), 30.
Mann HB, “Non-parametric test against trend”, Journal of Econometrica, 1945, 13, 245–259.
Masood M, Yeh PJF, Hanasaki N, Takeuchi K, “Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra-Meghna basin”, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2015, 19 (2), 747-770.
Memarian H, Balasundram SK, Abbaspour KC, Talib JB, Boon Sung CT, Sood AM, “SWAT-based hydrological modelling of tropical land-use scenarios”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2014, 59 (10), 1808-1829.
Memarian H, Balasundram SK, Abbaspour KC, Talib JB, Sung CTB, Sood AM, “Integration of analytic hierarchy process and weighted goal programming for land use optimization at the watershed scale”, Turkish Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences, 2015, 38 (2), 139-158.
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL, “Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations“, Transactions of the ASABE, 2007, 50 (3), 885-900.
Motovilov YG, Gottschalk L, Engeland K, Rodhe A, “Validation of a distributed hydrological model against spatial observations”, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 1999, 98, 257-277.
Najafi MR, Moazami S, “Trends in total precipitation and magnitude-frequency of extreme precipitation in Iran, 1969–2009”, International Journal of Climatology, 2016, 36 (4), 1863-1872.
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV, “River flow forecasting through conceptual models: part I. A discussion of principles”, Journal of Hydrology, 1970, 10 (3), 282-290.
Neitsch SL, Arnold JG, Kiniry JR, Williams JR, “Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009”, Texas Water Resources Institute, US, 2011.
Ozdemir A, Leloglu UM, Abbaspour KC, “Hierarchical approach to hydrological model calibration”, Journal of Environmental Earth Sciences, 2017, 76 (8), 318.
Pervez MS, Henebry GM, “Assessing the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change on the freshwater availability in the Brahmaputra River basin”, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2015, 3, 285-311.
Pourtouiserkani A, Rakhshandehroo GR, Akbari H, “Comparison of statistical downscaling methods in projecting climate change impact on extreme runoff events in Chenar Rahdar River basin (Iran)”, Journal of Watershed Management, 2015, 23.
Rostamian R, Jaleh A, Afyuni M, Mousavi SF, Heidarpour M, Jalalian A, Abbaspour KC, “Application of a SWAT model for estimating runoff and sediment in two mountainous basins in central Iran”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2008, 53 (5), 977-988.
Shafiei M, Ansari H, Davari K, Ghahraman B, “Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of a Semi-Distributed Model in a Semi-Arid Region, Case Study: Nishabour Watershed”, Journal of science and technology of agricultural and natural resources, Water and Soil Science, 2013, 17 (64), 137-149 (In Persian).
Shanley CS, Pyare S, Goldstein MI, Alaback PB, Albert DM, Beier CM, Brinkman TJ, Edwards RT, Hood E, MacKinnon A, McPhee MV, Patterson TM, Suring LH, Tallmon DA, Wipfli MS, “Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America“, Journal of Climatic Change, 2015, 130 (2), 155-170.
Sigdel M, Ma Y, “Evaluation of future precipitation scenario using statistical downscaling model over humid, subhumid, and arid region of Nepal-a case study”, Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 123 (3-4), 453-460.
Telmer K, Bonham-Carter GF, Kliza DA, Hall GE, “The atmospheric transport and deposition of smelter emissions: Evidence from the multi-element geochemistry of snow, Quebec, Canada”, Journal of Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta (GCA), 2004, 68 (14), 2961-2980.
USDA-SCS, “US Department of Agriculture-soil Conservation Service (USDASCS): Urban Hydrology for Small Watersheds”, USDA, Washington, DC. US, 1986.
Vaghefi SA, Mousavi SJ, Abbaspour KC, Srinivasan R, Arnold JR, “Integration of hydrologic and water allocation models in basin-scale water resources management considering crop pattern and climate change: Karkheh River Basin in Iran”, Journal of Regional Environmental Change, 2015, 15 (3), 475-484.
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque JF, Masui T, Meinshausen M, Nakicenovic N, Smith SJ, Rose SK, “The representative concentration pathways: an overview”, Journal of Climate Change, 2011, 109, 95-116. 
نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز
دوره 49.1، شماره 94 - شماره پیاپی 94
بهار 98
خرداد 1398
صفحه 47-59

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار