استفاده از مدل MIROC-ESM در بررسی شرایط هیدرو- اقلیمی حوضه آبخیز کوچک مقیاس تحت اثر تغییر اقلیم

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی آب، قطب علمی هیدروانفورماتیک، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

چرخه هیدرولوژی در حوضه رودخانه­ها و منابع آب قابل دسترس در مناطق نیمه خشک جهان به شدت تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیم و افزایش بیش از حد انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای قرار دارند. هدف این تحقیق بررسی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر شرایط اقلیمی حوضه آبخیز زشک- ابرده در استان خراسان رضوی می­باشد. مدل SWAT توسط الگوریتم SUFI-2 با هدف بهبود نتایج شبیه­سازی دبی حوضه مورد واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی قرار گرفت. مدل MIROC-ESM از سری مدل­های گزارش پنجم هیأت بین­الدول تغییر اقلیم (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; CMIP5) جهت بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر مؤلفه­های هیدرو- اقلیمی حوضه و تحت چهار سناریوی انتشار (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs) به نام­های6/2، 5/4، 0/6 و 5/8 و در سه بازه زمانی آینده نزدیک (2042-2014)، میانی (2071-2043) و دور (2100-2072) مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. همچنین، روند تغییرات حوضه با استفاده از آزمون من- کندال مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که تغییرات درجه تحت سناریوهای RCP4.5 و RCP6.0 در دوره زمانی آینده نزدیک و میانی و آینده دور (RCP6.0) از یک روند معنی­دار افزایشی تبعیت می­کند. از طرف دیگر، مؤلفه بارش در تمامی سناریوها از تغییرات کاهشی غیرمعنی­داری پیروی می­کند. همچنین، تغییرات رواناب تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 و در دوره­های زمانی آینده میانی و دور و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 و در آینده دور از روند معنی­دار کاهشی تبعیت می­‏کند. به طور کلی، میزان درجه حرارت در یک مسیر افزایشی پیش می­رود، در حالی که مقادیر بارش و رواناب یک جابجایی کاهشی را تا انتهای قرن 21 در حوضه دنبال می­کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Using the MIROC-ESM Model to Investigate the Hydro-Climatic Conditions of the Small-Scale Watershed under the Impact of Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Yousef Hassanzadeh 1
  • Amirhosein Aghakhani Afshar 2
1 Depart of water Engineering, Center of Excellence in Hydroinformatics, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]

Climatic paleontology evidences that climate change has always been present throughout the history of the planet, but the climatic changes of the last century have two distinct features, as compared with past climatic changes. First, human activities play a greater role in the nature of the current climate change. Second, the speed of recent climatic changes is greater, so that, a lot of changes will be occurring in the Earth's atmosphere during a short term (Telmer et al. 2004). Nowadays, global warming has significant effects on precipitation and runoff yield and water resources due to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (Pervez and Henebry 2015). The average of climatic variables, especially the components of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the annual or seasonal scale, play a predominant role in the hydrological cycle and usually used as an indicator for assessing the climate change on the available water resources of Iran now and especially in the future (Afshar et al. 2017). A number of studies have been done to investigate the impact of climate change on the hydrological components of watersheds in Iran on the basis of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report models (AR4). These models together with older emission scenarios have less resolution, in comparison with the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) models. Thus, climate change studies with higher resolution climate models under the new emission scenarios (RCPs) of the AR5 seem necessary in the watersheds of Iran. Zoshk-Abardeh is one of the important sources of income for the regional villagers and has a high ecotourism potential in Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran. It is considered as an urban watershed and according to the historical evidence has a high flood potential, as well. Therefore, the identification of climate change effects on the hydrologic regime of this watershed is necessary for water resource planners.

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  • Climate Change
  • Fifth Assessment Report
  • Emission Scenario
  • Mann-Kendall Test
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