تخمین عمق آبشستگی پایه‌های پل با استفاده از روش‌های آماری و الگوریتم‌های هوشمند

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه گنبد کاووس

چکیده

تخمین دقیق عمق آبشستگی اطراف پایه­های پل در کارهای مهندسی حائز اهمیت می­باشد. به دلیل پیچیدگی این پدیده بسیاری از روابط موجود قادر نمی­باشند عمق آبشستگی را با دقت قابل قبولی پیش­بینی نمایند. در این تحقیق ابتدا 17 رابطه تخمین عمق آبشستگی با داده­های میدانی مقایسه شدند و رابطـه فروهلیچ 1991 به عنوان بهترین رابطه انتخاب گردید. سپس با استفاده از روش­های ترکیبی میانگین (C-SAM)، رگرسیــون خطــی (C-REG) و ماشین بردار پشتیبان (C-SVM) 5 رابطه تخمین عمق آبشستگی (شن، فروهلیچ، فروهلیچ اصلاح شده، بلنچ I و اینگلیس II) که دارای کمترین خطا بودند با یکدیگر ترکیب شدند. مقایسه در مرحله صحت­سنجی نشان داد نتایج C-SAM به دلیل این­که از میانگین روابط استفاده می­نماید، تفاوتی با رابطه فروهلیچ ندارد؛ اما C-REG و به ویژه C-SVM توانسته­اند نتایج را بهبود بخشند. C-SVM توانسته ضریب همبستگی و خطای RMSE رابطه فروهلیچ را به ترتیب از 59/0 به 85/0 و از 63/0 به 42/0 تغییر دهد. با استفاده از SVM عمق آبشستگی با استفاده از پارامترهای مؤثر بر آبشستگی (P-SVM) بررسی گردید. نتایج نشان دادند دقت P-SVM قابل قبول است. دقت P-SVM با ضریب همبستگی 77/0 و خطای RMSE 51/0 بین دو روش C-REG و C-SVM قرار دارد. در این تحقیق نشان داده شد ترکیب روابط تجربی با استفاده از تکنیک SVM دارای بیشترین دقت و ترکیب پارامترهای مؤثر بر آبشستگی در رتبه دوم قرار دارد. همچنین نتایج این تحقیق نشان دادند SVM با استفاده از هوش مصنوعی می­تواند پدیده آبشستگی را با دقت بیشتری نسبت به روابط تجربی شبیه­سازی نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Bridge Pier Scour Using Statistical Methods and Intelligent Algorithms

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Morteza Seyedian
  • Abolhasan Fathabadi
Faculty of Agriculture, Gonbad Kavoos University
چکیده [English]

When a stream is partially obstructed by a bridge pier, the flow pattern around the pier is significantly changed. Changes in flow pattern are the cause scour around piers. Bridge pier scouring estimates, is an important parameter in the design of bridges because inattention to it may cause damage or reduce the life of the bridge [1-4]. The safe and economical design of bridge piers requires accurate prediction of the maximum scour depth around their foundations [5].
Mathematical Principles of SVM is based Russian mathematician researches [6]. Ghazanfari Hashemi and Etemad Shahidi had predicted bridge pier scour using SVM method in a laboratory model. They showed that this method is more accurate than empirical relationship. Although extensive studies have been conducted on the pier scour, but a valid relationship does not exist that gives satisfactory results in different conditions [5].
Bates and Granger is one of the first research works in the field of hybrid approach [7]. Shamseldin et al. was used combination methods such as simple average, weighted average and neural network to predict floods [8].
Studying literature reveals that there is a lack of reliable formulas for prediction of the scour depth to cover different condition. The aim of this study is combination of the various pier scour relationships to predict the scour depth using conventional and intelligent (SVM) methods and combination of effective parameters of this phenomenon.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Bridge pier
  • Combination method
  • Scour depth
  • SVM
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