عنوان مقاله [English]
One of the most important phases in the design of rubble-mound breakwaters is the checking of the hydraulic stability of the armor layer against the waves and the currents. In this research, the probability of armor layer instability in rubble-mound breakwaters is discussed based on the reliability analysis approach. The factors affecting the instability have been identified and the amount of uncertainty of each of these factors in determining the probability of failure and the reliability index is examined. Physical and environmental data has been obtained from an experimental study conducted on a rubble-mound breakwater. Distribution data for load and strength variables has been obtained from available research works. The coastal engineering manual (CEM) has been used to determine the limit-state function. After determining the limit-state function and statistical properties of the variables, reliability analysis with four methods including FOSM, FORM (HL-RF), SORM, and MCS has been conducted using Rt software for the conditions of breaking and nonbreaking incident waves; and the results of these four methods have been compared. Finally, the importance of each of load and strength variables and their impacts on the reliability index and the probability of failure has been discussed.