تعیین مناطق مناسب انجام مشاهدات ژئودتیکی به‌منظور رفتارسنجی و مطالعه مکانیک گسل شمال تبریز با آنالیز حساسیت مدل تحلیلی اکادا به روش HDMR

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

با ظهور فناوری­ های جدید مانند GPS (Global Positioning System) و انجام مشاهدات باکیفیت بالا، می­توان مطالعات بسیاری را در مورد مسائل زمین ­ساختی شروع کرده یا بهبود بخشید. بااین‌حال کیفیت و قابلیت اطمینان نتایج حاصل از این مطالعات به محل ایستگاه­ ها یا به‌عبارت‌دیگر به طرح شبکه­ های ژئودینامیکی بستگی دارد. هدف این تحقیق بهینه­ سازی مکانیکی جهت تعیین بهترین محل برای ایستگاه­ های یک شبکه ژئودینامیکی به­ منظور رسیدن به مقادیر صحیح­ تر برای پارامترهای گسل باقابلیت اطمینان بالا و هزینه کم است به­ نحوی­ که با حل مسئله معکوس با قید مشاهدات آن ایستگاه ­ها بتوان به مقادیر صحیح ­تر برای برخی از پارامترهای گسل­ های فعال رسید. تحقیق حاضر به تعیین بهینه محل ایستگاه­ های شبکه ژئودزی ماهواره­ای برای مطالعه مکانیک گسل شمال تبریز به­ منظور برآورد هرچه صحیح ­تر پارامترهای این گسل اختصاص دارد. عوامل محدودکننده­ای نظیر توپوگرافی را نیز می­توان در این فرایند مدنظر قرار داد. به­ منظور انجام تحلیل حساسیت مدل تحلیلی اکادا (Okada) انتخاب شد و تحلیل حساسیت میدان جابه ­جایی سطحی حاصل از این مدل نسبت به کلیه پارامترهای ورودی از جمله پارامترهای هندسی گسل و پارامترهای رئولوژیکی (Rheological Parameters) پوسته انجام شد. برای انجام تحلیل از فرامدل HDMR (High Dimensional Model Representation) استفاده شد. نخست یک شبکه ­بندی 500×400 کیلومتر با فواصل نقاط 10 کیلومتری ‌در منطقه اطراف گسل ایجاد شده و تحلیل حساسیت جابه ­جایی­ های سطحی نسبت به کلیه پارامترهای ورودی مدل در هر نقطه شبکه انجام شد. بر اساس نتایج تحلیل صورت گرفته بیشترین حساسیت مدل مربوط به نرخ لغزش و عمق قفل­ شدگی و کم­ترین آن مربوط به ضرایب لامه (Lamé coefficients) می­باشد، به ­نحوی­ که برای رفتارسنجی و مطالعه نرخ لغزش ایستگاه‌ها باید دور از گسل و برای مطالعه عمق قفل‌شدگی باید نزدیک گسل احداث شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Determination of Appropriate Geodetic Observational regions to Monitor the Mechanical behavior of NTF by Sensitivity Analysis of Okada Model Using HDMR Method

نویسندگان [English]

  • Asghar Rastboud
  • Babak Shahandeh
  • Mehdi Mohamad-Zadeh
Civil Engineering Faculty, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The faulting phenomenon involves different variables. Some of these variables are determined more accurately than others using non-modeling approaches. The main subject of this paper is to investigate the influence of both individual geometrical and physical input parameters involved in the Earth surface displacement models. For different physical and geometrical parameters, it is recommended to use sensitivity analysis on parameters that are determined from a field study with less accuracy. Both slip rate and locking depth of the fault are major parameters, in this aspect.
In this paper, the role of all faulting parameters on surface displacement data has been investigated. To do this analysis, the elastic half-space model of Okada (1985) was used. As a case study, the surface displacements model was applied to the North Tabriz Fault. The medium is composed of an elastic half-space. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on all geometrical and physical parameters. Finally, the regions of the most appropriate surface displacements were determined to obtain the most accurate values for the studied parameters. According to the obtained results, the model parameters, i.e., locking depth and slip rate, could be determined more effectively in the regions near and away from the fault trace, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Mechanical Optimization
  • Geodynamic Network
  • North Tabriz Fault
Chan K, Tarantola S, Saltelli A, Sobol IM, “Variance-based methods. In: Saltelli A, Chan K, Scott EM (Eds.), Sensitivity Analysis”, John Wiley & Sons, 2000.
Djamour Y, Vernant P, Nankali H-R, Tavakoli F, “Nw Iran-Eastern Turkey Present-Day Kinematics: Results from the Iranian Permanent GPS Network”, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2011, 307 (1-2), 27-34.
Gerasimenko MD, “About problems of optimal design of geodetic networks, in State and Outlook of Engineering Geodetic and photogrammetric Works”, TsNIIGAiK, Moscow, 1990, 11-15.
Gerasimenko MD, “First order design of geodetic networks”, Geodesy and Cartography, 5, 4-7, 1991.
Gerasimenko MD, “Optimal Design and Adjustment of Geodetic Networks”, Nauka, Moscow, 1992.
Gerasimenko MD, Shestakov NV, Kato T, “On Optimal Geodetic Network Design for Fault-Mechanics Studies”, Earth Planets Space, 2000, 52, 985-987.
Gerasimenko, MD, “First order design of the deformation networks with the minimal number of geodetic points and their optimal allocation”, Far Eastern Mathematical Reports, 1997, 4, 86-94.
Gomberg JS, Ellis MA, “Topography and tectonics of the central New Madrid Seismic zone: results of numerical experiments using a three-dimensional boundary-element program”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1994, 99, 20299-20310.
Haji-Aghajany SH, Voosoghi B, Yazdian A, “Estimation of north Tabriz fault parameters using neural networks and 3D tropospherically corrected surface displacement field”, Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2017, 918-932.
Haji-Aghajany SH, Voosoghi B, Yazdian, A, “Estimating the slip rate on the north Tabriz fault (Iran) from InSAR measurements with tropospheric correction using 3D ray tracing technique”, Advances in Space Research, 2019, 64, 2199-2208.
Halicioglu K, Ozener H, “Geodetic Network Design and Optimization on the Active Tuzla Fault (Izmir, Turkey) for Disaster Management”, Sensors, 2008, 8, 4742-4757; DOI: 10.3390/s8084742.
Hessami K, Pantosti D, Tabassi H, Shabanian E, Abbassi M-R, Feghhi K, Solaymani S, “Paleoearthquakes and Slip Rates of the North Tabriz Fault, Nw Iran: Preliminary Results”, Annals of Geophysics, 2003, 46 (5), 903-915.
Jackson J, “Partitioning of Strike-Slip and Convergent Motion between Eurasia and Arabia in Eastern Turkey and the Caucasus”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1992, 97 (B9), 12471-12479.
Johnson HO, Wyatt FK, “Geodetic network design for fault-mechanics studies”, Manuscripta Geodaetica, 1994, 19, 309-323.
Karakhanian A, Trifonov G, Philip H, Avagyan A, Hessami K, Jamali F, Bayraktutan M, Bagdassarian H, Arakelian S, Davtian V, Adilkhanyan A, “Active faulting and natural hazards in Armenia, eastern Turkey and Northern Iran”, Tectonophysics, 2004, 380, 189-219.
Karimzadeh S, Cakir Z, Osmanoglu B, Schmalzle G, Miyajima M, Amiraslanzadeh R, Djamour Y, “Interseismic strain accumulation across the North Tabriz Fault (NW Iran) deduced from InSAR time series”, Journal of Geodynamics, 2013, 66, 53-58.
Kuang SL, “Optimization and Design of Deformation Monitoring Scheme”, PhD Thesis, Department of Surveying Engineering, Technical Report No. 157, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, Canada, 1991.
Li G, Wang S-H, Rabitz H, “High Dimensional Model Representations (HDMR): Concepts and Applications”, IMA Workshop: Atmospheric Modeling, 2000.
Li G, Wang S-W, Rosenthal C, Rabitz H, “High Dimensional Model Representations generated from low dimensional data samples. I. mp-cut-HDMR”, Journal of Mathematical Chemistry, 2001, 30 (1), 1-30.
Masson F, Djamour Y, Van-Gorp S, Chéry J, Tatar M, Tavakoli F, Nankali H, Vernant P, “Extension in Nw Iran Driven by the Motion of the South Caspian Basin”, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 2006, 252 (1-2), 180-188.
Okada Y, “Surface Deformation Due to Shear and Tensile Faults in a Half-Space”, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 1985, 75 (4), 1135-1154.
Petropoulos GP, Srivastava PK, “Sensitivity Analysis in Earth Observation Modelling”, Elsevier, 2016.
Rabitz H, Aliş OF, Shorter J, Shim K, “Efficient input-output model representations”, Computer Physics Communications, 1999, 117, 11-20.
Rabitz H, Aliş OF, “Managing the Tyranny of Parameters in Mathematical Modelling of Physical Systems”, in Saltelli A, Chan K, Scott E, eds, “Sensitivity Analysis”, John Wiley & Sons, chapter 9, 2000, 199-224.
Rizza M, Vernant J, Ritz F, Peyret M, Nankali H, Nazari H, Djamour Y, Salamati R, Tavakoli F, Chery J, Mahan S, Masson F, “Morphotectonic and geodetic evidence for a constant slip-rate over the last 45 kyr along the Tabriz fault (Iran)”, Geophysical Journal International, 2013, 199 (1), 25-37.
Sarsito DA, Kriswati E, Meilano I, Andreas H, Pradipta D, “Volcano deformation monitoring using geodetic method: optimal network design”, IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 389, Geomatics International Conference,  Surabaya, Indonesia, 21-22 August, 2019.
Schmitt G, “Review of Network Design: Criteria, Risk Functions, Design Ordering”, in “Optimization and Design of Geodetic Network”, edited by Grafarend E, and Sanco F, Springer, Berlin etc., 1985, 6-10.
Segall P, “Earthquake and Volcano Deformation”, Princeton University Press, 2010.
Steketee JA, “On Volterra's dislocation in a semi-infinite elastic medium”, Canadian Journal of Physics, 1958, 36, 192-205.
Saltelli A, Ratto M, Andres T, Campolongo F, Cariboni J, Gatelli D, Saisana M, Tarantola S, “Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer”, Wiley-Interscience, 2008.
Su Z, Wang EC, Hu JC, Talebian M, Karimzadeh S, “Quantifying the Termination Mechanism Along the North Tabriz-North Mishu Fault Zone of Northwestern Iran via Small Baseline PS-InSAR and GPS Decomposition”, IEEE Journal of selected topics in applied Earth observations and remote sensing, 2017, 10 (1), 130-144.
Taşkın G, Üsküplü, S, Saygın H, Ergintav, S, “Optimization of GPS observation strategy for improvement of tectonic measurements”, The IASTED International Conference on Applied Simulation and Modelling, Spain, 2003, 3-5 September.
Ukawa M, Fukao Y, “Poisson’s ratios of the upper and lower crust and the sub-moho mantle beneath central honshu, Japan”, Tectonophysics, 1981, 77, 233-256.
Vernant P, Nilforoushan F, Hatzfeld D, Abbassi MR, Vigny C, Masson F, Nankali H, Martinod J, Ashtiani A, Bayer R, Tavakoli F, Chéry J, “Present-Day Crustal Deformation and Plate Kinematics in the Middle East Constrained by Gps Measurements in Iran and Northern Oman”, Geophysical Journal International, 2004, 157 (1), 381-398.
Wyatt, F, “Displacements of surface monuments: vertical motion”, Journal of Geophysical Research, 1989, 94, 1655-1664.
Zhao S, Müller RD, Takahashi Y, Kaneda Y, “3-D finite-element modelling of deformation and stress associated with faulting: effect of inhomogeneous crustal structures”, Geophysical Journal International, 2004, 157, 629-644.
Ziehn T, “Development and Application of Global Sensitivity Analysis Methods in Environmental and Safety Engineering”, PhD Thesis, the University of Leeds, School of Process, Environmental and Materials Engineering, UK, 2008.