تحلیل شدت تصادفات برون‌شهری با استفاده از داده‌کاوی مکانمند مطالعه موردی: محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه مهندسی عمران- راه و ترابری، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان

2 گروه راه و ترابری، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه علم‌ و ‌صنعت ایران

3 گروه مهندسی عمران (راه و ترابری)، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

مدل­سازی شدت تصادفات به­ منظور شناسایی پارامترهای مؤثر بر آن در راه­ های برون­ شهری و همچنین تحلیل مکانی تصادفات رخ داده می­تواند موجبات کاهش تصادفات جاده­ای یک محور برون‌شهری را فراهم آورد. هدف این تحقیق ارائه مدلی مبتنی بر سیستم‌های اطلاعات مکانی (GIS) و داده­ کاوی به­ روش درخت طبقه ­بندی و رگرسیون جهت تحلیل شدت تصادفات و تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر آن در راه ­های اصلی دوخطه برون­ شهری است. روش پیشنهادی در محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان مورد ارزیابی و آزمون قرار می‌گیرد. در این راستا به منظور بررسی توزیع مکانی تصادفات در محور مورد مطالعه طی دوره 6 ساله 1390 تا 1395 شمسی، از توابع خودهمبستگی مکانی گتیس- ارد جی استار (Getis-Ord Gi) و تراکم کرنل استفاده شده است. خروجی تحلیل‌های مکانی نشان داد، که تمرکز تصادفات در بخش اعظمی از قوس­ های افقی محور مورد مطالعه بیشتر می­ باشد. باتوجه به این دستاورد در فاز بعدی تحقیق به­ منظور بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر شدت تصادفات، از مدل داده­ کاوی درخت طبقه­ بندی و رگرسیون بر روی تصادفات رخ­داده در کل محور و به طور خاص تصادفات رخ داده در قوس‌های افقی استفاده گردید. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که مهم‌ترین عوامل مؤثر بر افزایش شدت تصادفات در محور مورد مطالعه، دو متغیر نوع تصادفات و نحوه برخورد با ضرایب اهمیت متغیرهای مستقل به ­ترتیب 100 و 14/6 درصد برای کل محور و 100 و 22/8 درصد برای قوس ­های افقی هستند. بررسی اهمیت نسبی سایر متغیرهای مدل پیشنهادی نشان داد که نوع راه و توپوگرافی منطقه از جمله عوامل مؤثر در افزایش تصادفات با شدت خسارتی در محور قدیم قزوین- لوشان می ­باشد. علاوه بر این نتایج مدل­سازی بر روی تصادفات رخ ­داده در قوس­ های افقی نیز حاکی از این بود که مقاطع دارای خط-کشی ممتد، بیش از سایر مقاطع، مستعد وقوع تصادفات فوتی و جرحی شدید هستند. این تحقیق نشان داد که تلفیق توابع مکانمند GIS با تحلیل‌های ناپارامتریک داده‌کاوی که قابلیت مدل­سازی توأمان داده‌های کمی و کیفی را هم ­زمان دارا می‌باشد، در تعیین عوامل مؤثر بر افزایش شدت تصادفات و تصمیم‌گیری به‌منظور ارتقاء سطح ایمنی در محورهای برون‌شهری کارا و مؤثر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modelling and Analyzing the Severity of two-lane Highway Crashes Using the Spatial Data mining, Case Study: Old Corridor of Qazvin-Loshan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Meysam Effati 1
  • Hamid Behbahani 2
  • Samane Mortezaei 2
  • Mahyar Vahedi Saheli 3
1 Department of Civil Engineering (Road and Transportation), Faculty of Engineering, University of Guilan, Iran
2 Department of Road and Transportation, Faculty of Civil Engineering, The University Of Elmo-Sanat, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Civil Engineering (Road and Transportation), Faculty of Engineering, The University of Guilan, Gilan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Identifying the effective parameters on the increase of the accidents severity in the two-lane highway and also the spatial analysis of the accidents occurring in them, could lead to the reduction of the road accidents of this road. Based on this, the present research in addition to identifying section with high crashes, it also identifies the factors affecting the severity of accidents.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Accidents Severity
  • Data Mining
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Classification and Regression Tree
  • Horizontal Curves
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