نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی
نویسنده
هیات علمی گروه نفشه برداری دانشکده عمران دانشگاه تبریز
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
Coulomb Stress Changes analysis at moderate seismic depth is used to estimate the probability of an earthquake in many seismic regions. These studies show that in most cases the location of earthquakes is affected by changes in the Coulomb Stress caused by previous ones. In order to investigate the possible location of large earthquakes, Coulomb Stress of 24 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 5.5 in East-Iran calculated successively. Mechanical interaction among earthquakes shows the spatial relationship for about 50% of events. In order to know the areas that have highest probability, we compute the cumulative Coulomb Stress Change caused by the coseismic deformation of earthquakes on faults with optimal geometry. Results showed that the high-risk areas for causing the next large earthquakes. These areas are: part of Balhar fault in the southwest of 1940 earthquake, northern part of Ferdows fault in the west of the second earthquake of 1968 and southern part of Ferdows fault in the west of the 1947 earthquake, part of Mohamadabad fault in the south Earthquake of 1941, parts of Tabas fault in the east of the 1978 earthquake, part of the Doruneh fault in the north of the second earthquake of the 1903, the western part of the ِDasht-e Bayaz fault in the west of the third earthquake of 1979, Doostabad fault in the south of the 1947 earthquake, the end of the Abiz fault in the south of the earthquake 1997 and the beginning of Nayband fault in the south of the 1978 earthquake.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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