تحلیل احتمالاتی تأثیر ماهیت زلزله بر احتمال خرابی سازه‌ها

نوع مقاله : یادداشت پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده عمران و محیط زیست، مؤسسه آموزش عالی خاوران، مشهد

2 مؤسسه آموزش عالی خاوران، مشهد

3 دانشکده مهندسی، گروه عمران، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

10.22034/jcee.2020.20199.1502

چکیده

به سبب وجود عدم قطعیت­های فراوان در خصوصیات سازه و بارگذاری، استفاده از تحلیل­های معمول با خطا همراه است. در این پژوهش برای رفع کاستی یادشده از تحلیل احتمالاتی استفاده شد. برای این کار، جهت بررسی احتمال خرابی، یک قاب بتنی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت و این سازه تحت اثر چهار زلزله میدان- دور السنترو، هاچینوهه، کرن­کانتی و چی­چی و چهار زلزله میدان- نزدیک کوبه، نورثریج، کایوت­لیک و کوآلینگا تحلیل گردید. کمیت­های غیرقطعی سازه از قبیل جرم حجمی، ضریب کشسانی و ابعاد هندسی مقطع با سه نوع توزیع یکنواخت، نرمال و لوگ نرمال و در ضرایب پراکندگی مختلف 5% ، 10% و 15% تولید و احتمال خرابی در هر حالت محاسبه شد. با بررسی نتایج به­دست آمده می‌توان دریافت که احتمال خرابی سازه، مستقل از نوع توزیع احتمالاتی متغیرهای تصادفی بوده و وابسته به مقدار ضریب پراکندگی، ماهیت زلزله از نقطه نظر میدان دور و میدان نزدیک و حداکثر شتاب زلزله می­باشد. به عبارت دیگر، نتایج حاصل از تحلیل احتمال­اندیشانه نشان داد که احتمال خرابی سازه در زلزله­های میدان- نزدیک با ضریب پراکندگی بالاتر، بیشتر از حالت مشابه در زلزله­های میدان- دور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Probabilistic analysis of the influence of earthquake nature and content on possibility of structural failure

نویسندگان [English]

  • Siamak Golnargesi 1
  • Ali Nazari 2
  • Farzad Shahabian Moghaddam 3
1 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Khavaran Institute of Higher Education, Mashhad 5135230690, Iran
2 Construction Management of Civil Engineering, Khavaran Institute of Higher Education, Mashhad 5135230690, Iran
3 Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ferdowsi university, Mashhad, Iran
چکیده [English]

By studying structural analyses in the space of uncertainty, it is apparent that there has been a little research on the effects of the type of earthquake on probabilistic analysis of the structure with various random distributions and coefficients of variation. Therefore, this research attends to this shortcoming. In order to do so, a one-story steel frame has been used. Structural properties such as density, elastic modulus and beam and column dimensions are considered as uncertain parameters with each having three uniform, normal and log-normal types of density function and three coefficients of variation of 5%, 10% and 15%. This structure excited by two far-field earthquakes (El Centro and Hachinohe), and two near-field ground accelerations (Northridge and Kobe). By applying Monte Carlo simulation method in this research, desired random variables are generated and applied in probabilistic analysis.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Probabilistic analysis
  • Earthquake
  • Failure probability
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