ارزیابی پارامترهای ژئومکانیکی و هندسی مؤثر بر حریم گسل: تحلیل حساسیت موریس و یادگیری ماشین

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، شهید بهشتی تهران

10.22034/ceej.2026.68453.2448

چکیده

زلزله نتیجه مستقیم جابجایی وگسیختگی گسل و انتشار گسیختگی در سطح زمین است. بسیاری از زلزله‌های مخرب در امتداد گسل‌های فعال رخ می‌دهد. از این رو، مطالعه و ارزیابی حریم گسل، اقدامی حیاتی برای کاهش بلایای طبیعی مرتبط با زلزله به شمار می‌رود. با توجه به اینکه در دستورالعمل‌های آیین‌نامه‌ای و ادبیات فنی، به اهمیت و تأثیر همزمان پارامترهای مؤثر بر حریم گسل، همچنین به مشخصات خاک و گسل توجه کافی نشده است، در این پژوهش سعی شده تا اهمیت و رابطه پارامترهای هندسی و ژئومکانیکی مؤثر بر حریم گسل را در هر دو بخش فرادیواره و فرودیواره، به صورت کیفی ارزیابی شود. برای ارزیابی اهمیت این پارامترها، از تحلیل حساسیت جامع موریس و الگوریتم جنگل تصادفی استفاده شد. نتایج حاصل از این تحلیل نشان می‌دهد که ارتفاع لایه خاک بیشترین اهمیت و تأثیر را بر جابه‌جایی‌های ناشی از حرکت گسل دارد که این تأثیر در گسل معکوس بیشتر از گسل نرمال است. همچنین، در میان پارامترهای ژئومکانیکی، پارامترهای الاستیک خاک در مقایسه با پارامترهای پلاستیک خاک در حریم گسل از اهمیت بیشتری برخوردارند.

شناسایی پارامترهای کم اهمیت‌تر، به کاهش هزینه محاسبات عددی در مطالعات آتی کمک شایانی خواهد کرد. همچنین، نتایج این پژوهش راه را برای بررسی کمی اهمیت و اندرکنش پارامترهای با اهمیت بالا در مطالعات آینده حریم گسل هموار می‌کند. نتایج این مطالعه کمک می‌کند تا دستورالعمل‌های آیین‌نامه‌ای دقیق‌تری برای حفظ ایمنی زیرساخت‌ها توسعه یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Geomechanical and Geometric Parameters Affecting Setback Zone: Morris’s Sensitivity Analysis and Machine Learning

نویسندگان [English]

  • Morteza Ezzati
  • Ahmad Mahboubi
Master's student, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Water and Environment, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Seismic events are a direct consequence of fault movements and ruptures that propagate to the ground surface, often causing severe damage to infrastructure located in the vicinity of active faults. While existing seismic codes and design standards have improved, they are often insufficient to prevent the complete destruction of structures in these zones. Current literature suggests that avoiding construction near active faults is the most effective damage mitigation strategy. Despite extensive research on the individual impacts of geometric and geomechanical parameters on ground deformation, a comprehensive understanding of their combined influence on the fault setback zone remains limited. The primary objective of this study is to qualitatively evaluate the importance and relationships of these parameters. The research aims to identify the most significant parameters affecting ground displacement caused by fault movement and to distinguish them from less influential ones, thereby reducing the computational cost of future numerical simulations and providing a foundation for more effective seismic code guidelines.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Setback zone
  • Geometric and geomechanical parameters
  • Normal faulting
  • Reverse faulting

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نشریه مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست
دوره 56، شماره 122 - شماره پیاپی 122
بهار 1405
خرداد 1405
صفحه 117-132

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