پیش بینی جریان ورودی به مخزن و استفاده از ترکیب بهینه سازی ازدحام ذرات ژنتیک در بهره برداری از سد علویان

نوع مقاله : مقاله کامل پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی و علوم محیط زیست، دانشگاه نانکای، چین

2 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

10.22034/ceej.2024.60171.2320

چکیده

برای مدیریت بهینه بهره‌برداری از مخازن سدها، برآورد دقیق آبدهی رودخانه در ماه‌های آینده با استفاده از مدل‌های هوش مصنوعی و الگوریتم‌های فراابتکاری ضروری است. هدف این مطالعه در فاز اول، پیش‌بینی جریان ورودی سال آینده به مخزن سد علویان با استفاده از مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی بوده است. باتوجه به این­که بهره‌برداری بهینه از مخازن سدها یکی از مهم­ترین فاکتورهای مدیریتی در دوران بهره‌برداری محسوب می‌شود، در فاز دوم این پژوهش تحت عنوان مدل­سازی سیستم‌های پویا، از مدل ونسیم (Vensim) برای شبیه‌سازی رفتار سیستم با استفاده از رواناب پیش‌بینی شده و مصارف واقعی استفاده شده‌ است. در فاز سوم، برای بهینه‌سازی بهره‌برداری از مخزن سد علویان، از ترکیب الگوریتم‌های بهینه‌سازی (الگوریتم ژنتیک و الگوریتم ازدحام ذرات) بهره گرفته شده است. مقایسه نتایج نشان می‌دهد که فاز پیش‌بینی دقت مناسبی داشته‌است. جهت ارزیابی عملکرد الگوریتم‌های مورد بررسی در بهره‌برداری بهینه از مخزن، از شاخص‌های عملکرد مخزن استفاده شده است. در تحلیل‌های کوتاه‌مدت، شاخص قابلیت اعتماد حجمی الگوریتم ترکیبی پیشنهادی، 72 درصد برای سناریوی 100 درصدی تأمین نیاز کشاورزی و 94 درصد برای سناریوی 80 درصدی تأمین نیاز کشاورزی بوده، درحالی­که شاخص قابلیت اعتماد حجمی مدل ونسیم 75 درصد برای سناریوی 100 درصدی و 83 درصد برای سناریوی 80 درصدی تأمین نیاز کشاورزی به­دست آمده است. بنابراین، با استفاده از الگوریتم ترکیبی، منحنی‌های فرمان رهاسازی و حجم مخزن برای 12 ماه بعد بر اساس ورودی‌های پیش‌بینی شده تهیه و ارائه گردیده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Forecasting Reservoir Inflow and Employing the Combined Genetics-Particle Swarming Optimization Approach for Alavian Reservoir Operation

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hessam Najafi 1
  • Bagher Nikofar 2
  • Vahid Nourani 2
  • Nazanin Behfar 2
1 College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, China
2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]

Recognizing the pivotal role of water in human life, the accurate estimation of water resource potential and its optimal utilization stands as a crucial and significant concern within the water industry. Furthermore, effective planning and management of reservoirs in dams require a comprehensive understanding of river flow in the upcoming months. Hence, this study involves the prediction of inflow to the dam reservoir, followed by the extraction of the optimal control curve under various scenarios utilizing both simulation and optimization methods. The comparative results between the simulation and optimization approaches in this study hold significance in addressing the comprehensive requirements for drinking, agriculture, environment, and industry. To provide a thorough assessment of both current and future conditions, multiple scenarios, including drought, extreme drought, and normal conditions, have been considered and their outcomes have been juxtaposed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dam operation curve
  • Inflow prediction
  • System dynamics
  • Optimization
  • Simulation
  • Alavian dam

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