Evaluation of Alavian Reservoir Operation Performance under the Condition of Future Climate Change

Authors

1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz

2 Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz

Abstract

Evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources is one of the main tasks of researchers in the world. Considerable efforts have been done to study the hydrological processes and effects of climate change on water resources. Iran is a developing country where more than 85 percent of its total water is used in agriculture. The Urmia Lake located in the North West of Iran has lost a lot of its water. This is because of building several dams in the basin areas and also climate changes. Although several studies about the effects of climate change on the basin rivers flows [1] and also simulations of the reservoirs operation [2] have been separately carried out, few studies have examined the operation of reservoirs under climate change conditions. Moreover, most of the studies have used a simple climate model, HadCM3, and less attention has been paid for evaluating other climate models. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of future climate change on the hydrological response of the Sufichay River basin located at upstream of the Alavian Dam and also the reservoir operation for supplying drinking, industrial, agricultural and the environmental water demands for the next two periods of 20 years, around the years 2020 and 2055, using the reliability criterion.

Keywords


[1]        IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers in Climate Change 2007", Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K.B, Tignor M, Miller H.L (eds.), The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2007, pp 1-18.
[2]        Frederick, K. D., "Introduction in:  Water Resource and Climate Change", Fredrick, K. D. (ed.), Northampton MA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 2002.
[3]        Wurbs, R. A., Muttiah, R. S., Felden, F.,"Incorporation of Climate Change in Water Availability Modeling", Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 2005, 10 (5), 375-385.
[4]        Thomas, R. B., Megan, W. F., "Peak Flow Responses to Clear-Cutting and Roads in Small and Large Basins, Western Cascades, Oregon: A Second Opinion", Water Resources Research, 1998, 34, 3393-3403.
[5]        Moore, K., Pierson, D., Pettersson, K., Schneiderman, E., Samuelsson, P., "Effects of Warmer World Scenarios on Hydrologic Inputs To Lake Malaren, Sweden And Implications For Nutrient Loads", Hydrobiologia, 2008, 599, 191-199.
[6]        Fang, X., Pomeroy, J.W., "Drought impacts on Canadian prairie wetland snow hydrology", Hydrological Processes, 2008, 22, 2858-2873.
[7]        Ehrman, J. M., Higuchi, K., Clair, T. A., "Backcasting to Test The Use of Neural Networks For Predicting Runoff In Canadian Rivers", Canadian Water Resources, 2000, 25, 279-308.
[8]        Vicuna, S., Dracup, J. A., "The Evolution of Climate Change Impact Studies On Hydrology and Water Resources in California", Climatic Change, 2007, 82, 327-350.
[9]        Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R. J. T., Wandel, J., "An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability", Climate Change, 2000, 45, 223-251.
[10]     Yohe, G. W., "Assessing the Role of Adaptation in Evaluating Vulnerability to Climate Change", Climatic Change, 2000, 46, 371-390.
[11]     Tol, R. S. J., Nicolien, V. D. G., Olsthoorn, A. A.,  Werff, P. E. V. D., "Adapting to climate: A Case Study on Riverine flood Risks in the Netherlands", Risk Ananlysis, 2003, 23, 575-583.
[12]     Payne, J. T., Wood, A. W., Hamlet, A. F., Palmer, R. N., Lettenmaier, D. P., "Mitigating the Effects of Climate Change on The Water Resources of the Columbia River Basin", Climate Change, 2004, 62, 233-256.
[13]     Habtom, M. B., "Evaluation of Climate Change on Upper Blue Nile Basin Reservoir (case Study on Gilgel Abay Reservoir, Ethiopia) ", A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Masters of Science in Hydraulics and Hydropower Engineering of Arba-Minch University, Arba Minch University, School of Post Graduate Studies, 2009.
[14]     Li, L., Xu, H., Chen, X., Simonovic, S., "Streamflow Forecast and Reservoir Operation Performance Assessment under Climate Change", Water Resources Management, 2010, 24, 83-104.
[15]     Eum, H. I., Simonovic, S., "Integrated Reservoir Management System for Adaptation to Climate Change: The Nakdong River Basin in Korea", Water Resources Management, 2010, 24, 3397-3417.
[16]     Raje, D., Mujumdar P. P., "Reservoir Performance Under Uncertainty in Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change", Advances in Water Resources, 2011, 33, 312-326.
]17[    علیزاده، ا.، سیاری، ن.، حسامی‌کرمانی، م.، بنایان اول، م.، فریدحسینی، ع.، "بررسی پتانسیل اثرات تغییر اقلیمی بر منابع و مصارف آب کشاورزی (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبریز رودخانه کشف رود)"، نشریه آب و خاک، 1389، 24، (4)، صفحه 815-835.
]18[    ابائیان، ا.، ضرغامی، م.، کوهی، م.، بابائیان، ا.، کریمیان، م.، مدیریان، ر.، "بررسی رفتار منابع آب حوضه قره قوم تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم (مطالعه موردی: زیرحوضه درگز) "، نشریه آب و خاک (علوم و صنایع کشاورزی)، 1392، 27 (5)، 907-918.
]19[    آبابایی، ب.، میرزایی، ف.، سهرابی، ت.، "مطالعه اثر تغییر اقلیم بر جریانات ورودی به مخزن سد طالقان با استفاده از روش ترکیب اطلاعات"، مدیریت آب و آبیاری، 1392، 3 (2)، صفحه 13-28.
[20]     Zarghami, M., Abdi, A., Babaeian, I., Hassanzadeh, Y., Kanani, R., "Impacts of Climate Change on Runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran", Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 78,137-146.
[21]     Hassanzadeh, E., Zarghami, M., Hassanzadeh, Y., "Determining the Main Factors in Declining the Urmia Lake Level by Using System Dynamics Modeling", Water Resources Management, 2011, 26 (1), 129-145.
[22]     IPCC, "Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis", Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Dai, X., Maskell, K. & Johnson, C. A. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US, 2001.
[23]     Semenov, M. A., Stratonovitch, P., "Use of multi-model ensembles from Global Climate Models for Assessment of Climate Change Impacts", Climate Research, 2010, 41, 1-14.
]24[    حسینی، س. ح.، "ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر جریان رودخانه و عملکرد مخزن (مطالعه موردی: مخزن سد علویان)"، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران، 1391.