Optimizing Water Allocation in a Changing Climate Utilizing WEAP and SSP5.85 Scenarios- A Case Study: Keshan Chai basin

Articles in Press

Authors

1 Ph.D. candidate in Climatology, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

2 Assistant Prof. Department of Civil Engineering of Hydraulic Structures, Ara.C. Islamic Azad University, Jolfa, Iran.

3 Department of Civil Engineering, Ta.C., Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran

10.22034/ceej.2025.66162.2420

Abstract

This research comprehensively assesses the impacts of climate change on the Keshan Chai basin by integrating advanced methods such as the WEAP model, the SSP5.85 scenario of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and Landsat satellite imagery An analysis of historical data reveals significant fluctuations in water flow within the Ravasjan River, likely caused by repeated occurrences of floods and droughts. To address these variations and ensure a more stable water supply, the Isar Dam is projected to deliver regulated water for various purposes: 14 million cubic meters annually for drinking water, 35 million cubic meters annually for agriculture, and 4 million cubic meters annually for environmental needs. Climate change simulations project a 5% increase in annual precipitation for the forecast period (2025-2065) compared to the observation period (1990-2020), raising concerns about increased flooding in the region. The study also identifies three distinct climatic types based on monthly precipitation distribution.The minimum environmental flow requirement is estimated at 5.0 cubic meters per second monthly. Scenario-based water demand modeling shows that in Scenario 1, 92% of Ozghan’s demand and 47% of the development network’s are met in 70% of cases, with full satisfaction in 30%. Scenario 2 achieves 90% and 45% in 70% of cases, fully met in 25%. Scenario 3 meets 77% and 38% in 70% of cases, with 23% full satisfaction. Precipitation variability between 2011 and 2020 has created challenges for water management. Principal component analysis indicates 62.19% and 15.98% of precipitation variance are explaine.

Keywords

Main Subjects

Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 02 August 2025

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics