Determining the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff of Ahrchay Basin using Budyko's statistical method

Authors

1 Assistant Prof., Dept. of Water Resources Eng., Faculty of Civil Eng.,Univ. of Tabriz,Iran.

2 University of Tabriz

3 university of Tabriz

4 water organization

10.22034/ceej.2023.56748.2261

Abstract

Runoff, a vital component of water resources, is influenced by climate change and human activities, impacting hydrological processes and water cycles. Human actions, such as land use changes, water conservation, agricultural irrigation, and groundwater extraction, affect surface water and aquifer storage. Climate change, primarily driven by increasing global greenhouse gas emissions, affects runoff by modifying precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns. To address water crises caused by global warming and land use change, research has focused on isolating the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using statistical methods for change point identification and hydrological models. Budyko's theory, a fundamental framework in water balance studies, highlights the role of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in determining evapotranspiration. In the Ahar Chay River basin, a cold and semi-arid region facing water scarcity, this study investigates the impact of climate change, human activity, land use changes, and dam construction on runoff using the Mann-Kendall, Pettitt, and Budyko models.

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Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 07 October 2023

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