Application of ARMA model in downscaling and climate change impact assessment in annual time-scal

Author

Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, I.R of Iran

Abstract

Despite the specific capabilities of the ARMA model to assess the impacts of climate change on an annual scale, this model has been rarely considered in previous climate change studies. Because it is not clear that how skewed series can be downscaled using this model. Precipitation series on the daily and monthly scales is often skewed, but annual rainfall in many areas is has a normal distribution. In this paper, the performance of the annual ARMA model and the LARS-WG daily model for generating annual rainfall and temperature series is compared. The results show that the ARMA model well reproduces the various statistics of annual observed rainfall and temperature, as well as the frequency distribution of these variables. But the LARS-WG model, which has a good performance in reproduction of daily statistics, does not have an acceptable performance in reproducing the annual distribution frequencies. It is because of the inability of the LARS-WG model in reproducing of inter-annual variabilities (specially annual standard deviation). Climate change impact on annual precipitation and temperature of the Zanjan station is assessed using ARMA model and HADGEM2 outputs under RCP4.5 scenario. The results indicate that for various return periods, the temperature will increase and rainfall will decrease. based on results, by considering climate variability and change, 2-year return period precipitation will decrease between 7% to 23% and 2-year return period temperature will increase between 2.2 to 3.8 ºC respect to corresponding observed values.

Keywords

References

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Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Volume 51.3, Issue 104 - Serial Number 104
Autumn 2021
October 2021
Pages 31-39

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